S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?

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Current Probability

99.8%

24h Change

+31.8 pp

Signal Score

64/100

Data Confidence

High (72)

24h probability rose 31.8pp

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 18:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $39,863
High data confidence (72)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.8%

24h Change

+31.8 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

79 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	99.8%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	99.3%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	98.4%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	96.0%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	87.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	83.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	85.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	83.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	83.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	83.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	83.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	85.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	85.0%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	83.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	83.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	82.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	79.0%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	68.0%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	69.0%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	70.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	70.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$76.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$39.9K

Market Significance

High (70)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 3, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 64/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 41

Data Confidence High (72)

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