Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 23 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (78)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 58.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 12:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 58.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $14,270

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 12:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 12:45:00 PM	4.0%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	4.2%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	4.1%
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 AM	4.2%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	4.3%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	3.9%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.0%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.1%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	5.1%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	3.8%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	3.8%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	3.9%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	3.8%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	3.9%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.0%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	3.9%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	3.7%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	3.8%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	3.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$37.3K

Volume vs Baseline

58.4x baseline

Liquidity

$14.3K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 23 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 79

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (78)

Next Steps

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