Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 26 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

7.7%

24h Change

-1.4 pp

Signal Score

22/100

Data Confidence

High (72)

24h probability fell 1.4pp

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-06 10:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $20,126
High data confidence (72)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

7.7%

24h Change

-1.4 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

6d of stored history

141 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 6, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/6/2026, 10:15:00 AM	7.7%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 AM	7.6%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.0%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 AM	7.8%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM	7.8%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 AM	7.7%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.7%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 AM	7.7%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.8%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM	9.2%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM	9.2%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM	9.8%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	9.1%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	9.2%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	20.4%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	16.4%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	9.3%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	9.6%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	9.3%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	9.3%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.9%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	9.2%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	9.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$49.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$20.1K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 26 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 22/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 81

Persistence 50

Data Confidence High (72)

Next Steps

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