Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?

Open · Resolves in 24 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

5.5%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability fell 0.5pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-07 04:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $18,287
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.5%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

6d of stored history

139 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 7, 04:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/7/2026, 4:30:00 AM	5.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 PM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/6/2026, 11:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 AM	7.0%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM	6.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$37.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$18.3K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 24 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 80

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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