Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 27 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

6.0%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

Signal Score

15/100

Data Confidence

Medium (68)

24h probability fell 0.5pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 10:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Low liquidity ($3,393)
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

6.0%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

112 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	6.0%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	6.0%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	6.0%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	6.0%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	6.0%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	6.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	6.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	6.0%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	6.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	6.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$53.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$3.4K

Market Significance

Moderate (64)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 27 days

End Date

Aug 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 15/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 76

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (68)

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