Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.9%

24h Change

+22.4 pp

Signal Score

54/100

Data Confidence

High (73)

24h probability rose 22.4pp

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 23:54 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $145,184
High data confidence (73)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.9%

24h Change

+22.4 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

83 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	99.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	99.8%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	99.8%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	99.8%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	97.7%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	92.3%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	91.3%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	95.9%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	95.3%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	96.6%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	94.0%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	94.0%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	95.0%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	95.0%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	97.2%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	97.4%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	96.9%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	97.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$307.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$145.2K

Market Significance

High (84)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 2, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 54/100.

Probability Momentum 75

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 95

Persistence 40

Data Confidence High (73)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗