Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

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Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

Signal Score

17/100

Data Confidence

High (71)

24h probability rose 0.4pp

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $107,878
High data confidence (71)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

99 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	100.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	99.9%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	99.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	99.6%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	99.6%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	99.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$129.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$107.9K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 3, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (71)

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