Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.4%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

Signal Score

15/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

24h probability rose 0.2pp

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $86,227
Medium data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.4%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

96 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	99.4%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	99.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	99.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	99.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	99.4%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	99.4%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	99.4%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	99.2%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	99.1%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	99.1%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	99.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	99.0%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	98.6%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	98.8%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	98.4%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	99.0%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	98.7%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	99.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$149.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$86.2K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 15/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (70)

Next Steps

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