Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?
Current Probability
1.3%
24h Change
-8.5 pp
Signal Score
57/100
Data Confidence
High (82)
24h probability fell 8.5pp; volume is 71.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 8.5pp
- 24h volume is 71.5x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $38,113
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
1.3%
24h Change
-8.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$121.3K
Volume vs Baseline
71.5x baseline
Liquidity
$38.1K
Market Significance
High (79)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Aug 19, 2026
Attention Score
76
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 57/100.