Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.7pp; volume is 4.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 08:49 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.7pp
24h volume is 4.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $70,339

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

163 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 08:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.5%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$53.0K

Volume vs Baseline

4.2x baseline

Liquidity

$70.3K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 89

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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