Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 3 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.2%

24h Change

-9.2 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 9.2pp; volume is 7.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-09 10:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 9.2pp
24h volume is 7.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $32,073

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.2%

24h Change

-9.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 9, 10:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/9/2026, 10:30:00 AM	1.2%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/9/2026, 8:45:00 AM	1.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.9%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.6%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.1%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.0%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 PM	3.3%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 PM	3.6%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.8%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	10.0%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 PM	9.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$57.7K

Volume vs Baseline

7.2x baseline

Liquidity

$32.1K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 3 days

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 31

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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