Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

35.5%

24h Change

+19.0 pp

Signal Score

68/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 19.0pp; volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 09:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 19.0pp
24h volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $21,369

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

35.5%

24h Change

+19.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 09:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	35.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	35.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	31.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	28.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	29.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	27.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	19.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	18.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	17.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	29.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	22.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	20.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	17.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	16.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	17.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$47.6K

Volume vs Baseline

3.6x baseline

Liquidity

$21.4K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 68/100.

Probability Momentum 63

Volume Activity 80

Liquidity Quality 81

Persistence 49

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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