Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

15.5%

24h Change

-40.0 pp

Signal Score

90/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 40.0pp; volume is 6.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 16 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 40.0pp
24h volume is 6.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $10,710

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

15.5%

24h Change

-40.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	23.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	42.0%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	41.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	43.0%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	49.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	52.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	50.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	52.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-6.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$85.3K

Volume vs Baseline

6.0x baseline

Liquidity

$10.7K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 90/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 49

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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