Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-1.5 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 1.5pp; volume is 5.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 16 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.5pp
24h volume is 5.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $54,883

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

168 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.8%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.6%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$78.8K

Volume vs Baseline

5.2x baseline

Liquidity

$54.9K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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