Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?

Open · Resolves in 19 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.5%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 15.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 20:51 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 15.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $81,388

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.5%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 08:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 1:15:00 PM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 9:15:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.7%
8/12/2026, 2:15:00 AM	0.7%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$70.8K

Volume vs Baseline

15.5x baseline

Liquidity

$81.4K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 19 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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