Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?

Open · Resolves in 19 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.6%

24h Change

-0.9 pp

Signal Score

40/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.9pp; volume is 4.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 22 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 05:40 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.9pp
24h volume is 4.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $73,641

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.6%

24h Change

-0.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

146 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 05:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 5:30:00 AM	1.6%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.6%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.7%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.8%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.1%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.4%
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$41.9K

Volume vs Baseline

4.3x baseline

Liquidity

$73.6K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 19 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 40/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 90

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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