Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

86.5%

24h Change

+6.0 pp

Signal Score

25/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

24h probability rose 6.0pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 23:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $44,528
Medium data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

86.5%

24h Change

+6.0 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

91 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 11:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM	86.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	86.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	86.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	85.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	84.0%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	86.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	86.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	81.0%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	83.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	84.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	82.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	80.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	80.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	82.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	87.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	82.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	83.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	83.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	76.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$50.7K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$44.5K

Market Significance

High (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 25/100.

Probability Momentum 20

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (70)

Next Steps

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