Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?

Open · Resolves in 22 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

13.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

22/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 12 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 05:37 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $42,269

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

13.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

156 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 05:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 5:30:00 AM	13.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 AM	13.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$31.4K

Volume vs Baseline

1.6x baseline

Liquidity

$42.3K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 22 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 22/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 28

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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