Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

15.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

Signal Score

22/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

24h probability fell 4.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $51,201
Medium data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

15.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

81 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	16.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	14.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	14.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	15.0%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	14.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$61.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$51.2K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 22/100.

Probability Momentum 13

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (70)

Next Steps

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