Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

8.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

Signal Score

19/100

Data Confidence

Medium (59)

24h probability fell 3.0pp

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 23:54 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $51,965
Medium data confidence (59)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

8.5%

24h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

69 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	7.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	10.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	11.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$63.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$52.0K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 19/100.

Probability Momentum 10

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (59)

Next Steps

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