Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

4.7%

24h Change

-1.1 pp

Signal Score

21/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability fell 1.1pp

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 23:54 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $79,480
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

4.7%

24h Change

-1.1 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

73 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.6%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.6%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	4.7%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	4.8%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	4.6%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.3%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	6.2%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	6.6%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	6.8%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	6.6%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	6.6%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	6.7%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	6.2%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	6.3%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	6.3%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	6.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$67.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$79.5K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 21/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 43

Data Confidence Medium (62)

Next Steps

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