Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in August?

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

3.3%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

15/100

Data Confidence

Medium (59)

24h probability rose 0.5pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 10:56 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $56,869
Medium data confidence (59)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.3%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

57 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	3.3%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	3.3%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	3.3%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	3.4%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	3.4%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.0%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	3.0%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	3.1%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	3.3%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	3.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	3.4%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	3.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$50.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$56.9K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 15/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (59)

Next Steps

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