Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?

Open · Resolves in 28 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.1%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

High (70)

Signal passed quality checks

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 07:27 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $68,501

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.1%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

80 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 07:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	1.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$67.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$68.5K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 28 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (70)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗