Bitcoin Up or Down on August 3?

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Current Probability

20.5%

24h Change

-31.0 pp

Signal Score

59/100

Data Confidence

Medium (58)

24h probability fell 31.0pp

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 10:56 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $22,310
Medium data confidence (58)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

20.5%

24h Change

-31.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

46 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	32.5%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	20.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	17.5%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	13.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	23.5%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	25.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	35.0%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 AM	37.0%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 AM	52.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 AM	54.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM	72.0%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM	71.5%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	66.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	63.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+3.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$62.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$22.3K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 3, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 59/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (58)

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