Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?

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Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+40.5 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

24h probability rose 40.5pp

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 17:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $30,657
Medium data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+40.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

97 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	100.0%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	99.6%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	98.6%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	94.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	96.9%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	97.0%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	97.2%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	97.3%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	96.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	95.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	92.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	85.0%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	73.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	76.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	76.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	73.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	72.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	70.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	69.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	58.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$111.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$30.7K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 5, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (70)

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