Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.8%

24h Change

-6.8 pp

Signal Score

24/100

Data Confidence

Medium (68)

24h probability fell 6.8pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 10:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $6,150
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.8%

24h Change

-6.8 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

90 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.8%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	3.1%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	12.0%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	10.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	12.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	15.0%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	16.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	16.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	6.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	10.0%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	9.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Only 3d of listing history

24h Volume

$84.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$6.1K

Market Significance

Moderate (65)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 5, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 24/100.

Probability Momentum 23

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 80

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (68)

Next Steps

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