PR Prediction Radar

Hagen: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Henri Squire

Open · Resolves in 6 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-48.9 pp

Signal Score

65/100

Data Confidence

Medium (63)

24h probability fell 48.9pp

Data may be stale — last sync exceeded two update cycles. Freshness updates on the next successful sync.

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
  • Liquidity depth $267,867
  • Medium data confidence (63)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Latest 0.1% · Aug 4, 10:15 AM

0% 29% 59% Aug 3 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 4 Current 0.1% · 2d of stored history · 25 pts

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-48.9 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

61 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table
Time Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM 0.1%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM 0.1%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM 3.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM 53.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM 50.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM 50.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM 50.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM 49.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM 49.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM 49.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM 49.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM 49.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM 49.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$131.3K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$267.9K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 6 days

End Date

Aug 10, 2026

Attention Score

48

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 65/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 0
Liquidity Quality 91
Persistence 44
Data Confidence Medium (63)

Next Steps

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