National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Adrian Mannarino

Open · Resolves in 6 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

81.5%

24h Change

+20.0 pp

Signal Score

52/100

Data Confidence

Medium (64)

24h probability rose 20.0pp

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 18:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $448,034
Medium data confidence (64)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

81.5%

24h Change

+20.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

3d of stored history

63 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 06:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 6:15:00 PM	81.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	83.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	75.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	59.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+6.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$113.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$448.0K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 6 days

End Date

Aug 10, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 52/100.

Probability Momentum 67

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 58

Data Confidence Medium (64)

Next Steps

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