Bitcoin Up or Down on August 4?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

37.5%

24h Change

-14.0 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

Medium (64)

24h probability fell 14.0pp

Market data

Updated 58 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $25,782
Medium data confidence (64)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

37.5%

24h Change

-14.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

44 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	37.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	52.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	45.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	71.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	59.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	42.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	47.0%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	53.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	52.0%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	51.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-7.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$53.8K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$25.8K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 47

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 70

Data Confidence Medium (64)

Next Steps

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