Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 3-9?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.4 pp

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

24h probability fell 0.4pp

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 18:43 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $33,182
Medium data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

6d of stored history

138 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 06:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 4:30:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 2:30:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 12:45:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.2%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$53.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$33.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 10, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (70)

Next Steps

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