Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

53.5%

24h Change

+4.0 pp

Signal Score

26/100

Data Confidence

Medium (62)

24h probability rose 4.0pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 23:39 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $33,505
Medium data confidence (62)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

53.5%

24h Change

+4.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

32 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 11:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM	53.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	53.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 PM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 PM	49.0%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM	48.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 AM	50.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	50.0%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	50.0%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	50.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	49.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$57.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$33.5K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 5, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 26/100.

Probability Momentum 13

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 48

Data Confidence Medium (62)

Next Steps

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