Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

39.5%

24h Change

+21.0 pp

Signal Score

51/100

Data Confidence

High (72)

24h probability rose 21.0pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $6,506
High data confidence (72)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

39.5%

24h Change

+21.0 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

112 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	36.0%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	28.0%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	20.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	13.5%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	22.0%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	17.5%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	24.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	19.0%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	15.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	34.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	23.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	18.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	23.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	22.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	19.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	22.0%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	22.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	18.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+3.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$71.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$6.5K

Market Significance

Moderate (65)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 8, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 51/100.

Probability Momentum 70

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 79

Persistence 50

Data Confidence High (72)

Next Steps

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