Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.9%

24h Change

-18.6 pp

Signal Score

47/100

Data Confidence

High (72)

24h probability fell 18.6pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $33,486
High data confidence (72)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.9%

24h Change

-18.6 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

112 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.7%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.9%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.2%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	7.5%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	16.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	17.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	18.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	18.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	18.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	18.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	18.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	19.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$51.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$33.5K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 8, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 47/100.

Probability Momentum 62

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (72)

Next Steps

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