Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?

Open · Resolves in 24 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

61.5%

24h Change

-9.5 pp

Signal Score

30/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability fell 9.5pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $28,542
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

61.5%

24h Change

-9.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

5d of stored history

117 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 4:15:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/7/2026, 11:45:00 PM	61.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	61.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	61.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	64.0%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	62.5%
8/7/2026, 4:30:00 PM	61.0%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	62.0%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	62.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	61.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$55.7K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$28.5K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 24 days

End Date

Sep 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 30/100.

Probability Momentum 32

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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