US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

Open · Resolves in 6 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

7.5%

24h Change

-10.0 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (72)

24h probability fell 10.0pp

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 07:49 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $36,615
High data confidence (72)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

7.5%

24h Change

-10.0 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

6d of stored history

149 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 07:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	7.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	8.0%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	8.5%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	9.5%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/9/2026, 2:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/9/2026, 1:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM	15.0%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 AM	14.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$48.1K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$36.6K

Market Significance

Moderate (69)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 6 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 33

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 49

Data Confidence High (72)

Next Steps

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