Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.5pp; volume is 10.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-12 19:06 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.5pp
24h volume is 10.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $127,194

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

161 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 12, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 1:15:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 9:15:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 7:30:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.9%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.0%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/11/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$176.8K

Volume vs Baseline

10.3x baseline

Liquidity

$127.2K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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