Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-10.5 pp

Signal Score

60/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 10.5pp; volume is 6.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-13 02:21 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 10.5pp
24h volume is 6.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $45,931

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

-10.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 13, 02:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/13/2026, 2:15:00 AM	0.3%
8/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
8/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/13/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.6%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	6.1%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	9.7%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	8.3%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	7.8%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	9.3%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	9.0%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	9.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	10.1%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	10.2%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	11.3%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	10.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$126.0K

Volume vs Baseline

6.1x baseline

Liquidity

$45.9K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 60/100.

Probability Momentum 35

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 40

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗