Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

19.0%

24h Change

-16.5 pp

Signal Score

64/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 16.5pp; volume is 7.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-13 02:21 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 16.5pp
24h volume is 7.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $27,947

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

19.0%

24h Change

-16.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

169 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 13, 02:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/13/2026, 2:15:00 AM	19.0%
8/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM	17.5%
8/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/13/2026, 12:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/12/2026, 10:45:00 PM	11.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	10.5%
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	10.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	9.0%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	12.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	13.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	28.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	42.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	43.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	45.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	44.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	36.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+4.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$98.5K

Volume vs Baseline

7.6x baseline

Liquidity

$27.9K

Market Significance

Moderate (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 64/100.

Probability Momentum 55

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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