Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

Signal Score

51/100

Data Confidence

High (86)

24h probability fell 0.2pp; volume is 8.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-13 02:21 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.2pp
24h volume is 8.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $31,006

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

167 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 13, 02:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/13/2026, 2:15:00 AM	0.3%
8/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/13/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 8:45:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.9%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.3%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.4%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$83.6K

Volume vs Baseline

8.7x baseline

Liquidity

$31.0K

Market Significance

Moderate (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 51/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 85

Data Confidence High (86)

Next Steps

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