National Bank Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone

Open · Resolves in 8 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

20.0%

24h Change

-41.5 pp

Signal Score

73/100

Data Confidence

Medium (68)

24h probability fell 41.5pp

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 17:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $294,168
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

20.0%

24h Change

-41.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

37 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	20.0%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	76.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	59.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 11:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM	61.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-56.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$2.2M

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$294.2K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 8 days

End Date

Aug 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 73/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 84

Data Confidence Medium (68)

Next Steps

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