National Bank Open: Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo

Open · Resolves in 8 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

84.0%

24h Change

+22.5 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

Medium (68)

24h probability rose 22.5pp

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 22:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $291,837
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

84.0%

24h Change

+22.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

43 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:15:00 PM	84.0%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	74.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	60.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+25.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$136.7K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$291.8K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 8 days

End Date

Aug 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 75

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 93

Data Confidence Medium (68)

Next Steps

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