S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-48.4 pp

Signal Score

61/100

Data Confidence

Medium (60)

24h probability fell 48.4pp

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 22:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $43,022
Medium data confidence (60)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-48.4 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

1d of stored history

35 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:15:00 PM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	55.0%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	60.0%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	46.0%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	72.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	86.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	76.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	76.0%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	75.0%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	68.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	67.0%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	74.0%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	74.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	77.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	72.0%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	71.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	68.0%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	66.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	64.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	58.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$121.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$43.0K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 5, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 61/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (60)

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