Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 11?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

48.5%

24h Change

-39.0 pp

Signal Score

64/100

Data Confidence

High (72)

24h probability fell 39.0pp

Market data

Updated 19 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $22,140
High data confidence (72)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

48.5%

24h Change

-39.0 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

Coverage

7d of stored history

159 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	51.5%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	54.5%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	55.5%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	54.0%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	54.0%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	49.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	54.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	46.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	61.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	78.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	72.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	82.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	89.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	86.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	84.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	89.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	88.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-3.0 pp

7d Change

Only 6d of listing history

24h Volume

$44.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$22.1K

Market Significance

Moderate (67)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 11, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 64/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 81

Persistence 45

Data Confidence High (72)

Next Steps

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