Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?

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Current Probability

66.5%

24h Change

+16.5 pp

Signal Score

39/100

Data Confidence

Medium (59)

24h probability rose 16.5pp

Market data

Updated 5 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-06 10:15 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $38,188
Medium data confidence (59)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

66.5%

24h Change

+16.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

43 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 6, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/6/2026, 10:15:00 AM	66.5%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 AM	71.0%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM	85.5%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM	75.0%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 AM	76.5%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 AM	75.5%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 AM	67.5%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 AM	56.5%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM	61.0%
8/6/2026, 12:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	63.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	67.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	68.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	66.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	64.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	60.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	50.0%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	50.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-19.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$79.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$38.2K

Market Significance

High (70)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 6, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 39/100.

Probability Momentum 55

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (59)

Next Steps

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