National Bank Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

57.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

Signal Score

14/100

Data Confidence

Low (34)

Signal passed quality checks

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-05 22:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h history insufficient for probability change
Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $358,474

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

57.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

23h of stored history

25 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 5, 10:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/5/2026, 10:15:00 PM	57.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 PM	62.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/5/2026, 9:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/5/2026, 8:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/5/2026, 7:00:00 AM	55.0%
8/5/2026, 6:00:00 AM	55.0%
8/5/2026, 5:00:00 AM	57.0%
8/5/2026, 4:00:00 AM	56.0%
8/5/2026, 3:00:00 AM	54.5%
8/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM	55.5%
8/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM	53.0%
8/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM	54.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$128.5K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$358.5K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Aug 12, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 14/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 0

Data Confidence Low (34)

Next Steps

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