Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 12?

Open · Resolves in 2 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.9%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

20/100

Data Confidence

High (72)

24h probability rose 0.5pp

Market data

Updated 15 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-11 07:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $23,166
High data confidence (72)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.9%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

Coverage

6d of stored history

135 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 11, 07:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/11/2026, 7:00:00 AM	99.9%
8/11/2026, 6:00:00 AM	99.8%
8/11/2026, 5:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/11/2026, 4:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/11/2026, 3:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/11/2026, 2:00:00 AM	100.0%
8/11/2026, 1:00:00 AM	99.8%
8/11/2026, 12:00:00 AM	99.8%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM	99.8%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.6%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM	99.6%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	99.7%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	99.5%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	99.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	99.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	99.5%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	99.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Only 5d of listing history

24h Volume

$47.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$23.2K

Market Significance

Moderate (68)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 2 days

End Date

Aug 12, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 20/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 47

Data Confidence High (72)

Next Steps

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