Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Michele Ribecai vs Andrea Guerrieri

Open · Resolves in 6 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

2.5%

24h Change

-41.9 pp

Signal Score

72/100

Data Confidence

Medium (68)

24h probability fell 41.9pp

Market data

Updated 21 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-07 12:30 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $437,020
Medium data confidence (68)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

2.5%

24h Change

-41.9 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

45 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 7, 12:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/7/2026, 12:30:00 PM	2.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	38.0%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 AM	39.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 AM	38.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 AM	37.5%
8/6/2026, 11:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/6/2026, 10:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/6/2026, 9:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM	37.5%
8/6/2026, 7:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/6/2026, 6:00:00 PM	38.5%
8/6/2026, 5:00:00 PM	40.5%
8/6/2026, 4:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/6/2026, 3:00:00 PM	41.5%
8/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM	44.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-59.0 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$325.6K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$437.0K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 6 days

End Date

Aug 14, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 72/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 95

Persistence 83

Data Confidence Medium (68)

Next Steps

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