National Bank Open: Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka

Open · Resolves in 8 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-33.5 pp

Signal Score

74/100

Data Confidence

Medium (69)

24h probability fell 33.5pp

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-07 23:50 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $268,579
Medium data confidence (69)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-33.5 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

44 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 7, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/7/2026, 11:45:00 PM	0.1%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	30.5%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	32.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	33.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 AM	32.0%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 AM	31.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 AM	33.0%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 AM	33.0%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 AM	33.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-30.4 pp

7d Change

Only 2d of listing history

24h Volume

$404.2K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$268.6K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 8 days

End Date

Aug 15, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 74/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 96

Persistence 95

Data Confidence Medium (69)

Next Steps

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