Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

56.0%

24h Change

+6.0 pp

Signal Score

23/100

Data Confidence

Medium (59)

24h probability rose 6.0pp

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $27,864
Medium data confidence (59)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

56.0%

24h Change

+6.0 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

Coverage

2d of stored history

42 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	56.0%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	62.5%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	61.5%
8/8/2026, 4:15:00 AM	57.5%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	63.5%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	49.5%
8/7/2026, 11:45:00 PM	49.0%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	51.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	54.0%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	52.5%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	35.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	39.0%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	45.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	49.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	50.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	50.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-6.5 pp

7d Change

Only 1d of listing history

24h Volume

$97.4K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$27.9K

Market Significance

Moderate (70)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Aug 8, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 23/100.

Probability Momentum 20

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 10

Data Confidence Medium (59)

Next Steps

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