Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-21.9 pp

Signal Score

57/100

Data Confidence

High (75)

24h probability fell 21.9pp

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 15:03 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $63,773
High data confidence (75)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-21.9 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

Coverage

4d of stored history

98 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 03:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM	44.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM	39.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM	36.0%
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	39.5%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	42.0%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	40.5%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	40.5%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	34.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	60.5%
8/10/2026, 5:30:00 AM	49.5%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	48.5%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	36.5%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	33.5%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	25.5%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	21.5%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	20.0%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	19.0%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	20.0%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	14.0%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	35.5%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	30.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-44.5 pp

7d Change

Only 4d of listing history

24h Volume

$129.9K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$63.8K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Aug 10, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 57/100.

Probability Momentum 73

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 70

Data Confidence High (75)

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